Today: AA 2084 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–46%.

Safest bet today AA 2084 CLT 07:28 → MCO 09:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1459 CLT 19:09 → MCO 20:46 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2084 American Flight history →	CLT 07:28	MCO 09:13	13%	4%	0.5%	86%
AA 3064 American	CLT 07:34	MCO 09:18	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2074 American Flight history →	CLT 10:09	MCO 11:57	15%	6%	0.6%	90%
AA 1670 American	CLT 09:52	MCO 11:29	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 1576 American	CLT 10:57	MCO 12:34	22%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 2127 American Flight history →	CLT 11:13	MCO 13:01	25%	7%	0.5%	83%
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:31	MCO 11:18	29%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 3271 American Flight history →	CLT 13:06	MCO 14:55	29%	11%	0.7%	70%
AA 1611 American	CLT 15:01	MCO 16:46	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
F9 1445 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:24	MCO 14:18	31%	12%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AA 2877 American	CLT 12:58	MCO 14:35	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2082 American Flight history →	CLT 14:55	MCO 16:44	33%	8%	1.2%	52%
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	33%	10%	1.8%	64%
AA 1660 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	MCO 17:31	37%	10%	1.8%	51%
AA 2100 American Flight history →	CLT 16:49	MCO 18:44	37%	10%	2.0%	58%
AA 669 American	CLT 16:01	MCO 17:42	37%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 941 American	CLT 21:23	MCO 23:10	37%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	38%	11%	1.9%	54%
F9 1555 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:59	MCO 00:54	38%	14%	2.7%	76%worse than usual
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	41%	13%	1.8%	46%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:33	MCO 18:10	41%	9%	2.1%	64%
F9 2451 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:02	MCO 22:01	41%	16%	3.2%	68%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	44%	13%	1.8%	61%
AA 1459 American	CLT 19:09	MCO 20:46	46%	13%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON