Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:02 pm at Charlotte)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:08, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2873 American	CLT 18:13	PDX 20:58	44%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 3112 American Flight history →	CLT 21:27	PDX 23:55	47%	8%	0.4%	55%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 34m	98%	78%
American Details →	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	3h 48m Chicago	ORD 21:27 → PDX 00:13 +1AA 2977	10h 57m	96%	72%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	3h 35m Denver	DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770	10h 05m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:02 → DTW 18:52DL 1430	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 46m	82%	61%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → PDX 21:54DL 691	8h 05m	87%	56%
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620	9h 55m	91%	54%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10WN 1513	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → PDX 00:02 +1WN 2950	7h 57m	80%	52%
American Details →	CLT 16:50 → PHX 18:14AA 1779	2h 11m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561	9h 18m	93%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:54UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 23m Houston	IAH 20:17 → PDX 22:48UA 1420	8h 44m	68%	47%
American Details →	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620	8h 03m	63%	38%
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51AA 2283	7h 51m	50%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON