Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5377 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5377 CLT 09:24 → ROC 11:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3155 CLT 22:10 → ROC 23:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5377 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:24	ROC 11:35	19%	4%	0.7%	79%
OH 5630 PSA	CLT 09:15	ROC 11:08	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	CLT 16:08	ROC 18:08	28%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 2424 American Flight history →	CLT 16:23	ROC 18:15	33%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 3155 American Flight history →	CLT 22:10	ROC 23:57	33%	9%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON