Today: OH 5677 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet today OH 5677 CLT 07:30 → SAV 08:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5601 CLT 20:56 → SAV 22:11 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5677 PSA	CLT 07:30	SAV 08:43	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4178 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:00	SAV 12:18	23%	6%	0.8%	95%worse than usual
AA 2317 American	CLT 08:59	SAV 10:06	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
OH 5381 PSA	CLT 14:44	SAV 15:57	26%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5382 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 21:03	SAV 22:20	30%	8%	1.3%	69%
AA 5196 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:50	SAV 17:07	31%	6%	1.2%	38%
AA 1517 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	SAV 23:57	33%	10%	1.6%	66%
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:10	SAV 14:27	33%	14%	1.0%	75%
OH 5237 PSA	CLT 19:04	SAV 20:17	33%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2076 American Flight history →	CLT 16:41	SAV 17:48	35%	8%	2.1%	40%
OH 5472 PSA	CLT 13:09	SAV 14:22	35%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:56	SAV 22:11	35%	8%	1.2%	49%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:10	SAV 10:31	17%	7%	0.0%	83%
AA 6119 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 15:46	SAV 17:07	30%	10%	2.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON