Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2525 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2525 CLT 07:05 → SEA 09:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 751 CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2525 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	SEA 09:47	22%	6%	0.4%	86%
AA 1920 American	CLT 09:38	SEA 12:26	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 506 American Flight history →	CLT 15:24	SEA 18:14	27%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1833 American	CLT 07:13	SEA 10:06	28%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 2107 American Flight history →	CLT 15:24	SEA 18:05	28%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 2529 American Flight history →	CLT 09:25	SEA 12:07	31%	7%	0.4%	72%
AA 1674 American Flight history →	CLT 20:19	SEA 23:00	37%	6%	1.0%	61%
AA 751 American Flight history →	CLT 17:40	SEA 20:25	39%	7%	0.9%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	8h 07m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	8h 25m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON