Today: DL 5700 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet today DL 5700 CMH 06:00 → LGA 07:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4617 CMH 17:19 → LGA 19:12 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5700 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	LGA 07:49	4%	1%	0.4%	94%
AA 4799 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:30	LGA 08:23	5%	2%	0.4%	89%
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 06:33	LGA 08:31	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	7%	2%	0.4%	86%
AA 4604 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:08	LGA 11:06	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:00	LGA 12:48	11%	3%	0.5%	89%
YX 5862 Republic	CMH 11:05	LGA 13:03	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4381 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:15	LGA 15:18	25%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:19	LGA 16:17	33%	6%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
AA 4394 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 15:47	LGA 17:41	33%	8%	0.7%	76%
YX 4500 Republic	CMH 16:25	LGA 18:30	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4791 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:19	LGA 20:26	35%	9%	0.7%	67%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:30	LGA 19:28	37%	9%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AA 4617 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:19	LGA 19:12	37%	9%	0.8%	69%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:25	LGA 16:14	38%	21%	12.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON