Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3423 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3423 CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 3527 CVG 18:15 → EWR 20:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3423 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	EWR 08:07	5%	2%	0.9%	97%
UA 3685 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 07:30	EWR 09:37	7%	2%	0.9%	91%
YX 3478 Republic	CVG 07:49	EWR 09:54	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
G4 410 Allegiant	CVG 08:10	EWR 10:05	12%	6%	1.4%	no record
YX 3684 Republic	CVG 11:58	EWR 14:20	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 3696 Republic	CVG 16:46	EWR 18:52	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 3527 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 18:15	EWR 20:24	30%	6%	0.8%	79%
DL 5069 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:30	EWR 08:29	10%	2%	1.8%	90%
UA 4192 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 12:00	EWR 14:04	24%	18%	1.9%	76%
DL 5083 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 17:31	EWR 19:33	31%	19%	7.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON