tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:57 pm at Hebron); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 16:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268 7h 22m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 15:50 → BWI 17:15WN 1247 3h 05m Baltimore BWI 20:20 → RSW 23:11WN 836 7h 21m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736 4h 57m 91% 58%
AmericanDetails → CVG 17:29 → CLT 19:07AA 2911 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176 5h 23m 91% 51%
AmericanDetails → CVG 15:28 → DFW 16:34AA 3305 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267 7h 10m 95% 49%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 17:30 → MCO 19:45WN 760 2h 10m Orlando MCO 21:55 → RSW 23:03WN 2752 5h 33m 96% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CVG 17:30 → MCO 19:45WN 760 1h 05m Orlando MCO 20:50 → RSW 22:00WN 4709 4h 30m 65% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON