Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2182 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2182 DAL 06:15 → LGA 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 4852 DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2182 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:15	LGA 10:30	10%	2%	0.7%	77%
WN 4827 Southwest	DAL 06:21	LGA 10:38	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1279 Southwest	DAL 08:21	LGA 12:38	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3664 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	LGA 12:50	16%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 4478 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	LGA 16:45	33%	9%	0.7%	32%
WN 4021 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:00	LGA 20:25	41%	12%	0.7%	45%
WN 4852 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:00	LGA 22:25	42%	12%	0.7%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON