Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:27 am at Washington)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 1770 Southwest	DCA 17:21	AUS 20:03	47%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 2593 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:25	AUS 19:50	48%	11%	0.4%	14%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	6h 29m	96%	83%
United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	8h 26m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:35 → BNA 07:25WN 1425	1h 57m Nashville	BNA 09:22 → AUS 11:46WN 1663	6h 11m	99%	80%
United Details →	DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312	8h 24m	95%	79%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → AUS 16:22UA 622	8h 57m	100%	78%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 39m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	8h 09m	99%	77%
Southwest Details →	DCA 16:10 → BNA 17:10WN 1900	3h 50m Nashville	BNA 21:00 → AUS 23:23WN 2372	8h 13m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	DCA 15:00 → MCI 16:40WN 1146	2h 45m Kansas City	MCI 19:25 → AUS 21:25WN 302	7h 25m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978	55m Las Vegas	LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569	8h 45m	58%	38%
United Details →	DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet	48m Newark	EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289	6h 11m	55%	28%
United Details →	DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet	47m Newark	EWR 18:50 → AUS 21:58UA 1032	6h 28m	45%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON