Today: UA 2190 at 10:58 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–37%.

Safest bet today UA 2190 DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 5222 DCA 19:56 → IAH 22:14 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	15%	3%	0.2%	86%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	17%	3%	0.2%	91%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	20%	4%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	23%	6%	0.8%	73%
OH 5253 PSA	DCA 07:48	IAH 10:28	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1381 United Flight history →	DCA 14:55	IAH 17:14	26%	6%	0.2%	78%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	26%	7%	0.2%	66%
AA 5467 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:59	IAH 10:18	30%	8%	0.6%	70%
OH 5458 PSA	DCA 13:44	IAH 16:12	31%	10%	0.5%	no record
OH 5391 PSA	DCA 19:49	IAH 22:17	33%	15%	1.3%	no record
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:22	33%	10%	0.6%	57%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:56	IAH 22:14	37%	16%	1.3%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON