Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1513 at 11:50, 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1513 DCA 11:50 → MSY 13:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5670 DCA 13:59 → MSY 15:53 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1513 Southwest	DCA 11:50	MSY 13:40	27%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3126 American Flight history →	DCA 11:39	MSY 13:36	28%	6%	1.2%	74%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	DCA 11:45	MSY 13:27	31%	6%	1.2%	70%
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 11:35	MSY 13:10	33%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 1514 Southwest	DCA 20:30	MSY 22:20	34%	8%	0.8%	no record
OH 5232 PSA	DCA 07:48	MSY 09:59	35%	12%	1.5%	no record
OH 5243 PSA	DCA 14:46	MSY 16:51	37%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 1453 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:10	MSY 20:50	37%	9%	0.9%	50%
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	MSY 15:53	37%	11%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON