tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at Washington); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3750 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DCA 16:59 MYR 18:37 35% 14% 0.7% 50%
MQ 4169 Envoy DCA 17:52 MYR 19:22 40% 12% 0.7% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 15:35 → MDW 16:45WN 4479 3h 00m Chicago MDW 19:45 → MYR 22:50WN 36 7h 15m 94% 75%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:10 → BNA 17:10WN 1900 2h 00m Nashville BNA 19:10 → MYR 21:47WN 4878 5h 37m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 5h 25m 86% 61%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:36 → CLT 16:38AA 2040 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 18:52 → MYR 20:03AA 2886 4h 27m 90% 47%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 20:44 → MYR 21:43AA 3123 6h 20m 94% 45%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 21:13 → MYR 22:17AA 1085 4h 27m 82% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:37DL 1007 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 4h 19m 69% 48%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 20:44 → MYR 21:43AA 3123 3h 53m 73% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON