tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:21 am at Washington); 11 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Today: UA 2201 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet today UA 2201 DCA 10:30 → ORD 11:48 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5450 DCA 20:00 → ORD 21:35 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 2201 United Flight history → DCA 10:30 ORD 11:48 14% 3% 0.2% 91%
YX 4516 Republic DCA 22:14 ORD 23:33 14% 4% 1.3% no record
AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:10 ORD 23:30 14% 4% 1.3% 75%
UA 374 United Flight history → DCA 11:57 ORD 13:15 14% 4% 0.2% 85%
UA 511 United Flight history → DCA 13:00 ORD 14:18 16% 4% 0.2% 76%
AA 489 American Flight history → DCA 11:35 ORD 12:53 16% 4% 0.2% 83%
UA 2803 United DCA 11:57 ORD 13:07 16% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 2023 American Flight history → DCA 11:37 ORD 12:50 17% 4% 0.2% 81%
UA 1888 United Flight history → DCA 14:00 ORD 15:18 18% 4% 0.2% 71%
AA 2398 American Flight history → DCA 13:59 ORD 15:23 18% 4% 0.2% 61%
AA 808 American Flight history → DCA 13:14 ORD 14:24 20% 4% 0.2% 90%
UA 1325 United Flight history → DCA 15:30 ORD 16:52 21% 4% 0.2% 66%
AA 2903 American Flight history → DCA 20:06 ORD 21:42 21% 6% 0.3% 77%
AA 3254 American Flight history → DCA 15:57 ORD 17:29 21% 4% 0.2% 73%
AA 359 American DCA 15:00 ORD 16:10 23% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 1637 American Flight history → DCA 15:56 ORD 17:15 24% 4% 0.2% 74%
UA 2218 United Flight history → DCA 20:04 ORD 21:14 25% 7% 0.2% 63%
UA 1193 United Flight history → DCA 19:10 ORD 20:32 25% 7% 0.4% 58%
AA 1630 American Flight history → DCA 17:22 ORD 18:54 26% 6% 0.2% 64%
UA 2148 United Flight history → DCA 18:10 ORD 19:32 26% 7% 0.2% 51%
UA 654 United Flight history → DCA 17:05 ORD 18:30 26% 7% 0.2% 50%
AA 1189 American Flight history → DCA 16:57 ORD 18:07 26% 6% 0.2% 61%
AA 1135 American DCA 18:44 ORD 20:01 26% 6% 0.2% no record
AA 488 American DCA 20:32 ORD 21:42 30% 7% 1.9% no record
UA 5450 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DCA 20:00 ORD 21:35 31% 10% 0.6% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON