tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:34 am at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 9 Alaska Flight history → DCA 17:16 PDX 20:04 16% 4% 0.4% 73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 35m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 8h 59m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 3h 27m Seattle SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon 10h 22m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 03m Chicago ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738 10h 00m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 11:57 → ORD 13:15UA 374 3h 00m Chicago ORD 16:15 → PDX 18:47UA 1677 9h 50m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:57 → ORD 18:07AA 1189 3h 19m Chicago ORD 21:26 → PDX 00:12 +1AA 2977 10h 15m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 9h 29m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:14 → ORD 14:24AA 808 2h 42m Chicago ORD 17:06 → PDX 19:54AA 966 9h 40m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 46m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 7h 19m 67% 54%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 49m Detroit DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913 7h 19m 60% 45%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA 1h 17m Philadelphia PHL 19:49 → PDX 23:18AA 3090 9h 00m 64% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON