Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 35–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5474 DCA 13:30 → PHL 14:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 5248 DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:17 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5474 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:30	PHL 14:38	35%	15%	0.8%	65%
OH 5304 PSA	DCA 13:48	PHL 14:59	37%	14%	0.8%	no record
OH 5023 PSA	DCA 10:29	PHL 11:32	37%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 5406 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:18	PHL 18:32	39%	19%	0.9%	39%
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:14	PHL 18:17	42%	17%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON