Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4752 at 17:59 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4752 DCA 17:59 → RDU 19:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time Riskiest AA 5367 DCA 14:39 → RDU 16:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4752 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:59	RDU 19:24	24%	11%	1.2%	25%
MQ 4180 Envoy	DCA 08:36	RDU 09:52	30%	10%	1.8%	no record
MQ 4177 Envoy	DCA 13:46	RDU 15:02	33%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:02	RDU 20:32	35%	19%	1.6%	46%
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:18	RDU 13:44	37%	15%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 5581 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:50	RDU 10:15	37%	14%	2.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:41	RDU 18:11	39%	21%	1.2%	57%
AA 5347 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:54	RDU 17:25	39%	18%	1.3%	47%
AA 2083 American Flight history →	DCA 20:00	RDU 21:12	39%	14%	2.1%	57%
AA 5367 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:39	RDU 16:10	41%	18%	1.3%	56%
DL 5269 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 07:59	RDU 09:09	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
DL 5322 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:47	RDU 19:21	37%	14%	2.5%	63%
DL 5428 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 22:05	RDU 23:19	40%	16%	7.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON