tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:09 am at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 10:59 SAN 13:34 25% 7% 0.5% 72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 9h 05m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 13m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SAN 22:34UA 1531 10h 04m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 57m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:56 → ORD 17:14AA 1637 3h 56m Chicago ORD 21:10 → SAN 23:26AA 2457 10h 30m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 17m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 10h 00m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 2h 45m Houston IAH 19:59 → SAN 21:39UA 1911 9h 44m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 9h 57m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 09:27 → ORD 10:43UA 351 3h 01m Chicago ORD 13:44 → SAN 16:04UA 559 9h 37m 97% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 53m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 7h 27m 67% 48%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 1h 06m Las Vegas LAS 19:36 → SAN 20:53WN 2187 7h 28m 67% 32%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 17m Newark EWR 19:20 → SAN 22:06UA 1102 8h 36m 66% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON