tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:00, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 820 Delta Flight history → DCA 17:45 SLC 20:41 21% 6% 0.1% 76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 14:57 → CVG 16:35DL 5134 · flown by Endeavor 3h 24m Hebron CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44DL 2149 8h 47m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 3h 18m Nashville BNA 19:33 → SLC 22:06DL 1378 8h 56m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → MIA 16:29AA 2915 3h 20m Miami MIA 19:49 → SLC 23:22AA 1017 11h 38m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 18m Chicago ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710 9h 18m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 3h 11m Houston IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43UA 2157 9h 48m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:00 → MSP 16:49DL 2863 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051 9h 13m 90% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 40m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 31m 96% 69%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 3h 47m Las Vegas LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425 10h 17m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:25 → AUS 19:50WN 2593 55m Austin AUS 20:45 → SLC 22:35WN 3133 7h 10m 48% 32%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 46m Seattle SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:45AS 669 8h 45m 50% 29%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:42B6 2954 50m Boston BOS 19:32 → SLC 22:59B6 247 7h 59m 27% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON