tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:32 am at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 51m Seattle SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41AS 773 11h 41m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 54m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 51m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 7h 33m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50UA 369 1h 39m San Francisco SFO 12:29 → SNA 14:17UA 2441 9h 22m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 3h 05m Houston IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:05UA 326 10h 10m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:58 → ORD 07:06AA 2304 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:14 → SNA 10:33AA 2679 7h 35m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 8h 13m 74% 55%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:59 → IAH 19:27UA 1785 52m Houston IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:05UA 326 8h 06m 64% 51%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804 50m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → SNA 20:06AA 358 7h 43m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON