tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Washington); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 17:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 25% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 2h 20m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 19m 88% 75%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 15m 88% 66%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:25 → MCO 20:00WN 1441 1h 56m Orlando MCO 21:56 → SRQ 22:52WN 856 5h 27m 82% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:55 → MIA 21:45AA 3244 1h 09m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 04m 66% 56%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:47 → EWR 19:00UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 09m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 5h 28m 57% 22%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:25 → MCO 20:00WN 1441 50m Orlando MCO 20:50 → SRQ 22:00WN 2710 4h 35m 25% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON