Today: WN 1745 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet today WN 1745 DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3728 DEN 18:24 → SNA 19:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1745 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	SNA 09:15	8%	1%	0.2%	94%
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	9%	3%	0.2%	95%
WN 1849 Southwest	DEN 08:30	SNA 09:57	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2727 Southwest	DEN 10:00	SNA 11:24	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:57	18%	4%	0.2%	86%
F9 4371 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:30	SNA 11:04	19%	5%	0.5%	89%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	20%	4%	0.2%	88%
WN 4175 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:25	SNA 12:50	21%	3%	0.2%	78%
WN 744 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:30	SNA 22:00	22%	3%	0.5%	52%
WN 1794 Southwest	DEN 12:45	SNA 14:10	23%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 2657 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	SNA 17:30	23%	7%	0.2%	81%
WN 1748 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:00	SNA 20:30	23%	5%	0.5%	40%
WN 4131 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	SNA 16:20	24%	4%	0.2%	35%
UA 1497 United	DEN 16:09	SNA 17:44	24%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 138 Southwest	DEN 20:34	SNA 21:59	26%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	DEN 20:32	SNA 22:01	26%	5%	0.5%	80%
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SNA 20:40	27%	9%	0.5%	75%
WN 3728 Southwest	DEN 18:24	SNA 19:48	28%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON