Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Today: AA 5013 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet today AA 5013 DFW 07:25 → MAF 08:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 6355 DFW 16:47 → MAF 18:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:25	MAF 08:50	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 4116 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:35	MAF 22:53	19%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 3652 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:32	MAF 13:49	19%	3%	1.3%	83%
OO 4982 SkyWest	DFW 08:49	MAF 10:22	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:36	MAF 16:53	20%	3%	1.2%	80%
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:13	MAF 19:33	21%	5%	1.3%	83%
AA 3541 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MAF 21:53	22%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 5621 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 12:36	MAF 13:59	22%	9%	1.3%	88%
AA 3657 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:35	MAF 19:50	24%	5%	1.3%	68%
OH 5207 PSA	DFW 20:14	MAF 21:37	27%	13%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3469 Envoy	DFW 11:05	MAF 12:39	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
OH 5402 PSA	DFW 15:32	MAF 16:55	28%	11%	1.3%	no record
OH 5434 PSA	DFW 22:39	MAF 00:02	28%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 5168 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 22:35	MAF 23:59	30%	14%	1.3%	58%
OO 5010 SkyWest	DFW 17:04	MAF 18:32	31%	16%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3857 Envoy	DFW 00:52	MAF 01:43	33%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:47	MAF 18:10	33%	16%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON