Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:01 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 39–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3037 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	RIC 22:57	39%	13%	0.2%	59%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	DFW 15:07	RIC 18:32	46%	11%	0.2%	70%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 16:26 → ORD 18:43AA 1290	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 21:22 → RIC 00:39 +1AA 4698 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:08 → RIC 00:49 +1DL 1175	7h 26m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:34 → MSP 18:03DL 2900	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 20:34 → RIC 00:04 +1DL 5530 · flown by Endeavor	7h 30m	90%	77%
American Details →	DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083	1h 29m Miami	MIA 21:09 → RIC 23:37AA 983	6h 58m	78%	57%
American Details →	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:45AA 2407	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 22:49 → RIC 00:04 +1AA 1882	7h 07m	91%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240	48m Dulles	IAD 22:12 → RIC 23:06UA 4473 · flown by GoJet	4h 51m	57%	40%
United Details →	DFW 16:01 → IAH 17:18UA 2682	57m Houston	IAH 18:15 → RIC 22:24UA 6208 · flown by Mesa	5h 23m	56%	32%
American Details →	DFW 16:23 → LGA 20:42AA 610	47m New York	LGA 21:29 → RIC 22:58AA 4345 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	40%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON