Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1558 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1558 DTW 07:05 → DCA 08:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 5172 DTW 17:32 → DCA 19:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	11%	4%	0.4%	81%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 09:57	DCA 11:40	12%	8%	0.9%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 13:21	DCA 15:17	14%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 5516 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 10:35	DCA 12:19	15%	9%	0.9%	73%
AA 5244 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:41	DCA 08:31	16%	9%	1.0%	84%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	20%	7%	0.6%	70%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	22%	6%	0.6%	51%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:18	DCA 18:59	23%	8%	0.6%	59%
OH 5371 PSA	DTW 17:21	DCA 19:01	24%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 5172 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 17:32	DCA 19:15	24%	16%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON