Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:39 am at Detroit); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2458 at 13:41, 26%.

Nonstops today


DL 2458 Delta Flight history →	DTW 13:41	SAT 15:51	26%	6%	0.1%	79%
DL 1365 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:15	SAT 22:22	31%	7%	0.2%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844	6h 29m	97%	83%
American Details →	DTW 10:25 → ORD 11:00AA 4103 · flown by Envoy	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy	8h 34m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DTW 10:45 → BNA 11:20WN 1775	2h 35m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → SAT 16:23WN 2269	6h 38m	100%	78%
United Details →	DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa	1h 43m Houston	IAH 14:40 → SAT 15:47UA 2030	5h 52m	96%	77%
United Details →	DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302	3h 54m Denver	DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395	9h 23m	99%	76%
United Details →	DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869	6h 47m	92%	71%
United Details →	DTW 16:28 → ORD 16:58UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394	7h 29m	94%	71%
Southwest Details →	DTW 16:00 → DEN 17:05WN 4450	3h 48m Denver	DEN 20:53 → SAT 00:09 +1WN 2607	9h 09m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:15 → STL 20:50WN 4159	55m St Louis	STL 21:45 → SAT 00:04 +1WN 2858	4h 49m	72%	57%
American Details →	DTW 11:42 → DFW 13:40AA 3101	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:31 → SAT 15:53AA 1961	5h 11m	69%	46%
United Details →	DTW 18:40 → IAH 20:50UA 4032 · flown by Mesa	50m Houston	IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42UA 2198	5h 02m	70%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON