Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:00 pm at Panama City Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1156 at 15:10, 42%.

Nonstops today


WN 1156 Southwest	ECP 15:10	HOU 17:12	42%	14%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 13:25 → STL 15:15WN 1790	3h 10m St Louis	STL 18:25 → HOU 20:37WN 4335	7h 12m	100%	78%
American Details →	ECP 12:25 → DFW 14:38AA 5185 · flown by PSA	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:29 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	ECP 13:20 → DAL 15:20WN 1401	3h 04m Dallas	DAL 18:24 → HOU 19:43WN 49	6h 23m	97%	67%
American Details →	ECP 12:24 → DFW 14:07AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	5h 55m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	ECP 17:32 → DAL 19:40WN 312	2h 20m Dallas	DAL 22:00 → HOU 23:15WN 63	5h 43m	96%	64%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 04m	99%	64%
American Details →	ECP 16:52 → DFW 19:10AA 3502 · flown by Envoy	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	7h 04m	96%	63%
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → AUS 17:00WN 1784	3h 45m Austin	AUS 20:45 → HOU 21:50WN 4192	6h 55m	100%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13AA 5651 · flown by PSA	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 00m	73%	48%
Southwest Details →	ECP 17:32 → DAL 19:40WN 312	50m Dallas	DAL 20:30 → HOU 21:40WN 57	4h 08m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON