Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:30 pm at Panama City Beach); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 4842 at 17:06, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 4842 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 17:06	IAH 18:57	20%	5%	1.5%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 54m	98%	65%
American Details →	ECP 16:52 → DFW 19:10AA 3502 · flown by Envoy	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	7h 17m	97%	45%
American Details →	ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13AA 5651 · flown by PSA	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	5h 02m	84%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON