tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:50 am at Panama City Beach)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1788 at 11:30, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1788 Southwest Flight history → ECP 11:30 MCI 13:45 15% 5% 0.9% 81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554 2h 50m Nashville BNA 22:35 → MCI 00:15 +1WN 563 5h 55m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Chicago ORD 20:05 → MCI 21:54UA 1851 7h 49m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:15 → DFW 14:41AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:09 → MCI 18:52AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 6h 37m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 55m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 5h 07m 82% 70%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 13:25 → STL 15:15WN 1790 1h 30m St Louis STL 16:45 → MCI 17:50WN 3944 4h 25m 89% 70%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 10:52 → BNA 12:29WN 311 2h 56m Nashville BNA 15:25 → MCI 17:16WN 609 6h 24m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:37 → MCI 21:55DL 3023 7h 08m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 00m Houston IAH 20:10 → MCI 22:11UA 1589 5h 06m 71% 46%
AmericanDetails → ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13AA 5651 · flown by PSA 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 27m 69% 44%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 13:20 → DAL 15:20WN 1401 48m Dallas DAL 16:08 → MCI 17:54WN 1401 4h 34m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON