Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:26 pm at El Paso); 7 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1880 at 21:50, 44%.

Nonstops today


WN 1880 Southwest	ELP 21:50	LAX 22:59	44%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 4992 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 22:15	LAX 23:25	48%	16%	0.2%	23%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30WN 1808	2h 18m Las Vegas	LAS 22:48 → LAX 00:02 +1WN 2318	5h 17m	92%	55%
Frontier Details →	ELP 18:59 → DEN 21:00F9 4418	1h 43m Denver	DEN 22:43 → LAX 00:17 +1F9 4339	6h 18m	83%	51%
American Details →	ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:41AA 3874 · flown by Envoy	57m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	4h 00m	86%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:34AA 2423	1h 04m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	4h 00m	63%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON