Today: WN 2114 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet today WN 2114 ELP 06:35 → PHX 07:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2423 ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2114 Southwest	ELP 06:35	PHX 07:01	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4224 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 06:35	PHX 06:55	6%	1%	0.2%	96%
AA 3882 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 05:49	PHX 06:15	9%	4%	0.4%	96%
OO 4925 SkyWest	ELP 06:02	PHX 06:34	10%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 3508 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 11:47	PHX 12:12	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 1201 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 10:15	PHX 10:35	16%	4%	0.2%	78%
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:32	PHX 16:00	18%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 1888 Southwest	ELP 10:50	PHX 11:19	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 3203 American	ELP 12:05	PHX 12:35	19%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3874 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 19:07	PHX 19:42	20%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 4823 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 16:25	PHX 16:45	30%	8%	0.5%	44%
WN 225 Southwest	ELP 17:45	PHX 18:14	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1677 Southwest	ELP 20:55	PHX 21:22	34%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 3800 Southwest	ELP 21:30	PHX 21:55	35%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 2423 American Flight history →	ELP 19:07	PHX 19:34	44%	14%	0.7%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON