Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2353 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 2353 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1157 EWR 22:29 → ATL 00:52 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	8%	3%	1.2%	85%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	8%	3%	1.0%	84%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	9%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:20	10%	3%	1.2%	92%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	11%	3%	1.0%	82%
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 08:45	ATL 11:08	13%	5%	0.9%	78%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	13%	5%	1.2%	81%
UA 1746 United	EWR 11:30	ATL 13:59	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 642 United Flight history →	EWR 11:00	ATL 13:23	15%	6%	1.0%	77%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	15%	5%	1.0%	80%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:29	ATL 19:14	20%	8%	1.2%	75%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	22%	7%	1.2%	70%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	EWR 13:02	ATL 15:28	22%	9%	0.9%	72%
DL 2430 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:59	ATL 21:54	22%	9%	1.3%	60%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:57	ATL 18:41	25%	10%	1.0%	76%
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:30	ATL 14:03	26%	10%	1.2%	75%
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	ATL 19:46	28%	10%	1.3%	72%
UA 1287 United Flight history →	EWR 19:52	ATL 22:22	35%	12%	1.0%	67%
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	44%	25%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON