Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Newark)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4389 at 17:08, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4389 GoJet	EWR 17:08	AVL 18:43	33%	9%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	7h 17m	97%	78%
American Details →	EWR 19:27 → CLT 21:20AA 1330	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA	4h 48m	82%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	4h 47m	60%	48%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA	4h 46m	64%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON