Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:59	GSP 19:08	20%	4%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:00AA 2505	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 11:07 → GSP 12:14AA 5802 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273	6h 56m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725	6h 14m	96%	87%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → GSP 10:12AA 5799 · flown by Piedmont	5h 12m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095	5h 36m	97%	83%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 08:26 → GSP 11:25AA 4160 · flown by Envoy	5h 55m	91%	83%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont	6h 37m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → GSP 18:55DL 1021	6h 55m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 11:25 → ORD 13:08UA 1875	47m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → GSP 17:00UA 5403 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	61%	50%
United Details →	EWR 15:08 → IAD 16:32UA 1992	48m Dulles	IAD 17:20 → GSP 19:04UA 4963 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 56m	57%	44%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	58m Charlotte	CLT 22:30 → GSP 23:24AA 5504 · flown by PSA	3h 55m	56%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON