Today: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–46%.

Safest bet today AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1446 EWR 18:28 → MIA 21:21 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	8%	3%	0.4%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 06:55	MIA 09:49	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	13%	4%	0.4%	93%
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 09:11	MIA 12:26	14%	4%	0.5%	97%worse than usual
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:31	MIA 14:38	22%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	EWR 12:31	MIA 15:35	23%	6%	1.3%	82%
AA 2981 American Flight history →	EWR 12:25	MIA 15:38	24%	6%	1.3%	55%
UA 1511 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	MIA 16:16	28%	8%	0.8%	68%
UA 623 United	EWR 21:34	MIA 00:38	30%	12%	1.3%	no record
UA 1128 United Flight history →	EWR 20:04	MIA 23:22	37%	15%	1.2%	73%
UA 791 United	EWR 20:19	MIA 23:12	37%	15%	1.2%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:49	MIA 19:03	39%	13%	0.9%	no record
AA 3119 American Flight history →	EWR 18:30	MIA 21:55	41%	15%	1.3%	75%worse than usual
AA 1446 American	EWR 18:28	MIA 21:21	46%	16%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON