Today: UA 3627 at 21:59 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–29%.

Safest bet today UA 3627 EWR 21:59 → PWM 23:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest G7 4464 EWR 16:52 → PWM 18:14 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3627 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:59	PWM 23:30	18%	4%	0.4%	78%
YX 3573 Republic	EWR 18:52	PWM 20:24	20%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 1397 United Flight history →	EWR 22:09	PWM 23:44	26%	12%	0.4%	81%
G7 4464 GoJet	EWR 16:52	PWM 18:14	29%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON