tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 46m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 56m Chicago ORD 09:37 → SJC 12:14UA 307 9h 14m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:33AS 1630 2h 12m Portland PDX 11:45 → SJC 13:35AS 1632 10h 05m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:53UA 1758 1h 52m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 42m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 52m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 28m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 8h 48m 71% 46%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 18:29 → SAN 21:37AS 573 48m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 8h 26m 57% 42%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:29 → PHX 19:51AA 1816 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 20:51 → SJC 22:41AA 1197 8h 12m 63% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON