Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 13:47, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AA 4416 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 12:18	DCA 15:18	22%	5%	0.7%	77%
YX 4375 Republic	EYW 14:09	DCA 17:16	24%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 06m	96%	74%
American Details →	EYW 16:53 → CLT 19:10AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	7h 00m	100%	72%
American Details →	EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	1h 22m Miami	MIA 13:42 → DCA 16:26AA 3310	4h 58m	100%	69%
American Details →	EYW 17:30 → MIA 18:27AA 3895 · flown by Envoy	2h 03m Miami	MIA 20:30 → DCA 23:09AA 2897	5h 39m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	7h 25m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 41m	93%	67%
American Details →	EYW 19:40 → MIA 20:30AA 3517 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Miami	MIA 22:10 → DCA 00:49 +1AA 708	5h 09m	95%	65%
American Details →	EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 18:23 → DCA 19:51AA 527	6h 50m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EYW 13:47 → MIA 14:40AA 3518 · flown by Envoy	50m Miami	MIA 15:30 → DCA 18:13AA 3138	4h 26m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON