Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3518 · EYW → MIA
departs 1:47 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.