Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3518 · EYW → MIA
departs 1:47 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.