Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3518 · EYW → MIA
departs 1:47 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.27 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.