Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Key West)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1687 at 17:31, 50%.

Nonstops today


AA 1687 American	EYW 17:31	PHL 20:28	50%	27%	0.9%	no record
AA 3147 American Flight history →	EYW 17:34	PHL 20:40	52%	27%	0.9%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 41m	94%	78%
American Details →	EYW 16:52 → CLT 19:08AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	7h 30m	100%	76%
United Details →	EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	8h 57m	95%	75%
American Details →	EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Miami	MIA 13:45 → PHL 16:43AA 1684	5h 15m	100%	74%
American Details →	EYW 17:29 → MIA 18:25AA 3895 · flown by Envoy	3h 39m Miami	MIA 22:04 → PHL 00:55 +1AA 2188	7h 26m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	8h 03m	99%	71%
American Details →	EYW 16:18 → ORD 19:06AA 3996 · flown by Envoy	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	8h 41m	93%	70%
American Details →	EYW 13:47 → MIA 14:40AA 3518 · flown by Envoy	3h 40m Miami	MIA 18:20 → PHL 21:15AA 2936	7h 28m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	5h 16m	71%	49%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → PHL 22:17AA 991	7h 56m	58%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON