tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:44 am at Fresno); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5647 SkyWest FAT 11:59 SFO 13:04 26% 13% 0.4% no record
UA 5349 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 18:40 SFO 19:44 28% 10% 0.6% 58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FAT 17:13 → SLC 19:58DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 39m 96% 75%
SouthwestDetails → FAT 16:35 → LAS 17:50WN 4461 3h 40m Las Vegas LAS 21:30 → SFO 23:11WN 1640 6h 36m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → FAT 18:09 → LAX 19:32UA 5759 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 22:29 → SFO 23:57UA 1047 5h 48m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → FAT 12:15 → DEN 15:51UA 5292 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 25m 94% 66%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 16:22 → SAN 17:47AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m San Diego SAN 21:27 → SFO 23:08AS 291 6h 46m 99% 62%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 17:51 → PDX 19:50AS 3285 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Portland PDX 21:34 → SFO 23:24AS 697 5h 33m 90% 60%
UnitedDetails → FAT 13:58 → LAX 15:23UA 5307 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → SFO 18:33UA 233 4h 35m 90% 60%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 13:04 → SAN 13:51AS 3491 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m San Diego SAN 16:03 → SFO 17:45AS 3482 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 92% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → FAT 17:40 → SAN 18:55WN 1845 1h 15m San Diego SAN 20:10 → SFO 21:55WN 4772 4h 15m 67% 42%
UnitedDetails → FAT 13:58 → LAX 15:23UA 5307 · flown by SkyWest 51m Los Angeles LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019 3h 44m 53% 31%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384 53m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 21m 45% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON