Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4481 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4481 HOU 07:35 → ELP 08:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 1979 HOU 14:50 → ELP 15:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4481 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:35	ELP 08:25	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 4895 Southwest	HOU 08:15	ELP 09:14	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2042 Southwest	HOU 15:10	ELP 16:11	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	ELP 23:30	30%	6%	0.5%	43%
WN 1979 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:50	ELP 15:45	30%	7%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON