Today: WN 1744 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet today WN 1744 HOU 08:01 → PHX 08:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3304 HOU 14:25 → PHX 15:05 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1744 Southwest	HOU 08:01	PHX 08:45	16%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2063 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:00	PHX 12:40	27%	3%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
WN 2592 Southwest	HOU 12:20	PHX 13:05	28%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4515 Southwest	HOU 19:30	PHX 20:18	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 982 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:50	PHX 20:35	30%	9%	0.6%	56%
WN 2113 Southwest	HOU 22:30	PHX 23:17	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2066 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	PHX 23:20	33%	10%	0.6%	47%
WN 2111 Southwest	HOU 15:05	PHX 15:50	35%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 3304 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:25	PHX 15:05	38%	6%	0.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON