Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:55 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3674 Southwest	HOU 21:20	PNS 23:03	30%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 4795 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:00	PNS 13:30	35%	3%	1.1%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	55m St Louis	STL 10:20 → PNS 12:17WN 766	4h 57m	92%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:40 → STL 12:45WN 2084	2h 10m St Louis	STL 14:55 → PNS 16:40WN 279	6h 00m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	4h 25m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 19:15 → PNS 20:45WN 2714	6h 35m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	5h 40m	93%	71%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	3h 35m Austin	AUS 13:55 → PNS 15:45WN 931	6h 20m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:20 → DEN 11:50WN 1972	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:45 → PNS 17:40WN 2264	7h 20m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 23m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	6h 08m	74%	47%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:56 → PNS 16:57AA 5355 · flown by PSA	4h 11m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON