Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4483 at 05:05, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 4483 HOU 05:05 → MCO 08:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 4978 IAH 19:23 → MCO 23:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4483 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:05	MCO 08:30	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
WN 2345 Southwest	HOU 05:10	MCO 08:29	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2079 Southwest	HOU 07:00	MCO 10:20	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4183 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:40	MCO 11:05	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 2078 Southwest	HOU 08:43	MCO 12:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	9%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	16%	5%	0.8%	86%
WN 2034 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:20	MCO 15:50	17%	5%	0.8%	79%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	20%	8%	1.2%	86%
WN 2037 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	MCO 00:10	23%	8%	0.8%	54%
UA 2323 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	MCO 23:22	28%	10%	1.2%	77%
WN 2036 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:05	MCO 21:30	30%	10%	0.9%	67%
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MCO 20:29	30%	11%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	33%	12%	1.3%	81%worse than usual
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	34%	13%	1.2%	80%worse than usual
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	37%	18%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 19:23	MCO 23:05	39%	15%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON