Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2261 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1966 United Flight history →	IAH 07:25	MIA 11:12	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:51	MIA 09:23	11%	3%	1.8%	93%
AA 1047 American Flight history →	IAH 05:10	MIA 08:51	11%	3%	1.9%	91%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:51	MIA 11:34	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2234 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	FLL 13:47	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:22	FLL 14:09	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:56	FLL 15:27	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
WN 1596 Southwest	HOU 10:01	FLL 13:31	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	16%	5%	0.6%	64%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:10	FLL 13:40	16%	3%	0.5%	79%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 07:35	MIA 11:20	17%	4%	1.3%	87%
UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	19%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2740 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MIA 20:33	21%	6%	0.6%	75%
WN 4253 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:25	FLL 16:55	22%	5%	0.5%	50%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	22%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 1345 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	PBI 15:56	22%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 603 American Flight history →	IAH 09:40	MIA 13:22	22%	5%	1.3%	75%
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	23%	6%	0.6%	30%
AA 3100 American	IAH 09:47	MIA 13:21	24%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 4825 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	FLL 00:10	25%	6%	0.6%	54%
AA 1918 American Flight history →	IAH 11:20	MIA 15:01	26%	6%	1.3%	57%
WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:00	MIA 00:30	28%	6%	0.5%	27%
F9 1068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:37	MIA 00:31	28%	15%	1.2%	67%
AA 1931 American Flight history →	IAH 18:12	MIA 21:50	30%	6%	1.6%	42%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	31%	9%	0.8%	62%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	37%	14%	0.6%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	37%	14%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON