Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:29 pm at Huntsville); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 4469 at 13:54, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 4469 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	HSV 13:54	ORD 15:30	30%	4%	0.7%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HSV 15:37 → DFW 17:48AA 3580 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → ORD 23:03AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	93%	75%
American Details →	HSV 15:41 → CLT 18:09AA 6006 · flown by Piedmont	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 21:49 → ORD 22:58AA 815	7h 17m	98%	73%
United Details →	HSV 16:47 → IAH 19:04UA 4893 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 47m Houston	IAH 21:51 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 787	7h 38m	93%	71%
American Details →	HSV 14:37 → DFW 16:46AA 5383 · flown by PSA	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → ORD 22:15AA 3531 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	88%	71%
United Details →	HSV 15:35 → DEN 17:55UA 5393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Denver	DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085	7h 44m	91%	69%
American Details →	HSV 13:15 → DCA 16:20AA 5213 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Washington	DCA 18:45 → ORD 20:01AA 1135	6h 46m	93%	67%
United Details →	HSV 12:31 → IAH 14:42UA 4909 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 27m Houston	IAH 17:09 → ORD 20:05UA 2135	7h 34m	94%	66%
American Details →	HSV 18:18 → DFW 20:30AA 5205 · flown by PSA	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	6h 32m	88%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HSV 13:15 → DCA 16:20AA 5213 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Washington	DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630	5h 39m	63%	46%
American Details →	HSV 18:18 → DFW 20:30AA 5205 · flown by PSA	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → ORD 23:57AA 1894	5h 39m	63%	45%
American Details →	HSV 14:37 → DFW 16:46AA 5383 · flown by PSA	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893	5h 52m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON