Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:10 am at Dulles); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3516 at 22:26, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3516 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:26	BUF 23:59	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 4823 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:30	BUF 19:03	24%	11%	4.1%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 49m	94%	82%
United Details →	IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226	6h 10m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	3h 35m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	6h 32m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	5h 42m	93%	73%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → BUF 20:31UA 1335	7h 16m	96%	73%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	2h 36m Newark	EWR 16:37 → BUF 18:05UA 3607 · flown by Republic	5h 30m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest	4h 03m	88%	68%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:29 → JFK 13:55DL 5835 · flown by Republic	3h 34m New York	JFK 17:29 → BUF 19:25DL 5250 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393	53m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → BUF 20:31UA 1335	4h 52m	66%	50%
American Details →	IAD 15:12 → DFW 17:40AA 524	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:45 → BUF 22:50AA 574	7h 38m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON